Leadership in an unstable world: the courage to question what we take for granted

For leaders in any domain, the ability to challenge long-held assumptions has always been important. But in today’s world, it’s essential. The structures and alliances that have been taken for granted are shifting beneath our feet. Economic models that once seemed invincible are under pressure. Old partnerships can no longer be taken at face value.  

How many leaders are facing into this, and how many are still operating as if the old rules apply? 

As leaders, we operate within systems shaped by ‘originating conditions’, the foundational assumptions, structures, and beliefs that set the organisation’s trajectory. This is true regardless of whether the organisation is a commercial business, a political party or a global alliance. 

These conditions are like echoes of the past. They’re often invisible, but when you look closely you can see how they still shape thinking, decisions and patterns of behaviour. They may have once driven success but, as the world changes, they can become invisible constraints.  

Now more than ever, leaders must learn to think critically and reflexively. What assumptions were once true but can no longer be taken as a given? What habitual patterns are guiding decision making, which should be scrutinised? 

This isn’t just a call for some ‘blue sky time’. This kind of thinking will be the difference between success and collapse for many organisations over the coming years. It is essential for adaptive leadership and lasting transformation. The leaders who will thrive in this environment are those who are willing to ask the uncomfortable questions: 

• What if our biggest market shrinks instead of grows? 

• What if our allies become our competitors, or our competitors become our allies? 

• What if our core business model is built on assumptions that no longer hold?  

• What if our most reliable partner suddenly acts in bad faith? 

This is not academic. These challenges are playing out in real time. Companies that failed to question their reliance on stable supply chains are being rocked by the waves of tariffs introduced since the turn of the year. Assumed historic alliances are leaving governments scrambling for alternatives. 

But questioning what used to be fundamental truths is hard – that’s why it’s often done badly, if at all. It means confronting uncertainty. It could mean that admitting that what worked before will not work now. It will receive pushback – some of it aggressive – because stepping out from a place of familiarity into a place of deep uncertainty is frightening. The gravity of what feels safe, familiar and comfortable is strong, even if it is visibly crumbling. 

But leading based on outdated assumptions is dangerous. 

Challenging assumptions isn’t about throwing everything out and starting again. It’s about creating the discipline to scrutinise what we take for granted while there is still time to plan for different scenarios. That means building cultures where questioning is encouraged, not punished. It means making space for curiosity and constructive challenge rather than acting with unwarranted certainty and rewarding only those who reinforce existing thinking. 

For CEOs, this means asking: “Where are we running on autopilot? Where are we assuming things are stable when they may not be?” For political leaders, it means recognising that ideological certainty is a liability in a world where power is shifting rapidly. 

Sometimes the greatest risk isn’t making the wrong call. I’s making no call at all. History doesn’t tend to be kind to leaders who double down on a crumbling status quo, and the world doesn’t wait for the unprepared to catch up.  

Leaders who actively engage with uncertainty will be the ones who shape what comes next. Those who don’t will be left reacting to decisions made by others. 

Are you ready to ask, “what if we’re wrong?”